Volatility Regime
Probability Analyzer

Understand the probability distributions of asset movements. Our heuristics classify candles into Sideways consolidation, Trendy momentum, or Volatile wicks, helping you avoid trade traps.

Isolate Volatility Regimes

Trading strategies fail when deployed in wrong market regimes. Momentum setups lose money in sideways consolidation; options writing loses money in sudden trend breakouts.

Our backtester crawls daily candles and calculates volatility indicators. It identifies the optimal active trading hour and suggests sizing configurations dynamically.

🔵
Sideways Regime (Chop Zone) High compression, low range candles. Ideal for sitting out or options credit spreads.
🟢
Trendy Regime (Momentum) Large bodies, high volume. Recommends expanded position sizing bias (1.0x to 1.5x).
🟡
Volatile Regime (Range Chop) Long wicks, highly erratic. Recommends conservative half-sizing (0.5x).

Galton Board Simulation

Visualizing probability distribution of market phases.

Landing Panel

Probability Analyzer Dashboard

The landing interface of the Probability Analyzer. Translates ticker names (preserving carets for Indian indices like ^NSEI and ^NSEBANK) and processes daily candles fetched via our CORS-bypass local proxy (/api/yahoo).

Vol Regimes

Quantitative Regime Classification

Analyzes daily price history and runs volatility heuristics to classify candles into Sideways (🔵), Trendy (🟢), or Volatile (🟡). Uses formulaic rules comparing daily high-low ranges to average historical volatility.

Historical Lookbacks

Historical Regime & Hourly Distribution

Plots a breakdown of the percentage distribution of each market regime over the 6-month historical lookback period, alongside the Intraday Timing Heatmap showing phase probability by hourly slots.

Seasonality & Days

Weekday Phase & Seasonality Returns

Analyze phase probability by trading weekday (e.g., Trendy Mondays vs. Sideways Fridays) alongside monthly seasonality returns over the past year.

Chart Scanner

Automated Chart Pattern Scanner

Scans historical daily candles and automatically identifies mathematical chart patterns (like Ascending Triangles) with neckline trigger levels, targets, stop loss recommendations, and action signals.

Avoidance Logic

Sideways Chop Zone Avoidance

Identifies the day of the week and active trading slot with the highest Sideways (🔵) probability. Use this data to sit on your hands, scale down sizing, or execute option writing/premium-decay strategies.

AI Playbook

AI Strategic Recommendations

Generates automated strategic playbook recommendations based on the asset's active regime, including entry/exit checklists, timing alerts, and preservation guidelines.

app.myfinancesheet.com/probability/dashboard
Probability Analyzer Overview
Translates carets for BSE/NSE index tickers.
Regime Heuristics Overview
Classifies candles into Sideways, Trendy, or Volatile regimes.
Regime Lookback Distributions
View absolute distributions over a 6-month timeline.
Hourly Volatility Distribution
Identifies hourly active-time regimes adjusted for GMT/IST.
Momentum Sweet Spot Timing
Pinpoints highest probability momentum hours.
Chop Zone Timing Avoidance
Flags high-probability chop hours to prevent losses.
Position Sizing Bias Controls
Direct sizing suggestions: Normal (1.5x) vs Halved (0.5x).
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